The Kentucky Center for Economic Policy analyzed what effect voucher programs in other states would have if adopted in Kentucky. (Getty Images)

Kentucky’s public schools could take a big hit to their state funding if voters approve a constitutional amendment this fall allowing the General Assembly to begin funding private schools, a progressive think tank and several school leaders warned Monday.

The new report from the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy (KyPolicy) estimates that if Kentucky were to adopt an educational voucher system like Florida’s, it would cost Kentucky $1.19 billion annually, enough to pay for nearly 10,000 public school teachers and employees. Florida’s voucher system is the largest of its kind.?

The think tank also analyzed a smaller model, comparable to states like Arizona, and found it would cost Kentucky $199 million annually. That’s about 1,650 Kentucky public school employees.?

But first voters would have to approve Constitutional Amendment 2.

Jason Bailey, the executive director of Berea-based KyPolicy and one of the report authors, said in a Monday press briefing that the report reviewed existing funding data from other states’ voucher programs to predict what a Kentucky system could look like if Amendment 2 is approved.

“Amendment 2 would provide a blank check to the legislature to allow them to fund private schools for the first time,” Bailey said.?

The Republicans who control the legislature did not approve any enabling legislation showing what laws they would enact if voters approve the amendment. “Since the General Assembly did not include accompanying legislation showing how they plan to implement the amendment — as is typically the case with constitutional amendments — and since the proponents have been reluctant to talk about what they will do if the amendment passes, we must look … to what similar states are doing.”

Jim Waters, president of the Bluegrass Institute for Public Policy Solutions, told the Kentucky Lantern in an interview that KyPolicy’s report was not “extremely relevant to the amendment.” The institute is supportive of voucher programs and charter schools as a way to increase education opportunities for students.?

“The amendment doesn’t create any ‘school choice’ program. It doesn’t create a voucher program. It doesn’t create a public charter school program. It doesn’t create an education savings account or a tax credit scholarship,” Waters said. “It simply allows the legislature to come back and debate that issue and decide that taking all of the factors into account — if the amendment passes.”?

Voucher programs give families money to be used toward paying private school tuition.

KyPolicy reports that “recent experience of other states shows that 65%-90% of voucher costs go to subsidize families already sending their children to private schools or planning to do so — a group whose average household income in Kentucky is 54% higher than public school families. Providing vouchers to that group will easily cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars based on the number of Kentucky students already in private school.”

The report says Kentucky’s existing private schools are in its wealthier areas. Three counties — Jefferson, Fayette and Kenton — are home to 52% of the state’s private schools. Jefferson County has the most at 33% while Fayette and Kenton counties have 10% each. Nearly half of the state’s 120 counties have zero private schools.?

Yet, a voucher system could disproportionately impact poorer rural counties where property values are low and therefore generate less property tax revenue for schools than in districts with more valuable real estate, KyPolicy found.

Kentucky’s wealthiest public school district — Anchorage Independent — would have to reduce its budget by 6% under the Florida model. Meanwhile, eight county school districts and six independent school districts would have to cut their budgets by at least 20% under the same model, the report says.

Rural districts, racial minorities fear amendment’s impact

Carter County Schools, a district in northeastern Kentucky, would have to reduce its budget by about 19% under the Florida model. Paul Green, Carter County superintendent, said Monday in the press briefing that his district already had a $750,000 deficit in its operating budget during the last fiscal year because of a “significant loss of enrollment” during the coronavirus pandemic. Carter County is also trying to figure out how it can afford salary increases for employees.?

“The majority of our funding comes from state sources. And as you get into the more rural, the more low-socioeconomic, the more land-poor districts rely more heavily on the state for revenue for schools,” the superintendent said.?

Green also expressed concerns about possible funding for homeschooled students, likening the amendment to “Pandora’s box” since it’s unclear what laws and policies would be implemented if the amendment is passed. If a system is created that allows funding to follow students not just to private schools, but also to homeschool programs, that could be an incentive for families to keep students at home, he said.

“Imagine you take a low-income family with three school-aged children, and you offer them $5,000 a year to homeschool their children,” Green said. “That could be $15,000 a year in cash money to a family to not educate their children or not put those children into school, and they then become schooled in a homeschool environment, which is unregulated with no way of anybody to check to make sure these things are happening in a way that actually educates our youth. That is a huge concern.”?

Casey Allen, the superintendent of Ballard County Schools in West Kentucky, said there “really isn’t a great reason for anyone” in his county to support the constitutional amendment. There are no private schools in the district, and under the Florida-model, Ballard County is predicted to lose 14% of its budget.?

Some Ballard County families do have students in private schools but must transport them to private schools in Paducah, the superintendent said.?

“The people that are currently seeking private school education will continue to seek private school education,” Allen said. “Families that leave our community will take with them the funding, and thus the jobs. … Other communities will benefit from our tax dollars. Employees of those institutions and retirees will live and spend their money in other communities.”?

Waters said in response to the superintendents’ concerns about losing state funding that creating competition between public and private schools could lead to better educational results.?

“The money is to educate the student, and our (state) Constitution says it’s supposed to be done in an effective and efficient way,” Waters said.?

Additionally, the KyPolicy report says there are “major disparities in the racial makeup of public and private school students.” As a whole, 78% of Kentucky students in public schools are white compared to 86% of students in private schools.?

Rev. Rhondalyn Randolph, the president of the Owensboro chapter of the NAACP, said the constitutional amendment would allow private schools to be more selective in the students they admit. Public schools often provide supportive resources for all students, such as afterschool programs and needs through Family Resource Centers.?

“If this ‘voucher amendment’ passes, it will only worsen the problem that we already have, and it will also further stifle the ability for public schools to be able to meet the needs of the students that are in need — of high risk students,” she said.?

Waters said that charter school laws typically include a first-come, first-serve policy and described that type of school as “public schools that deliver education in a more innovative way or in a different way.” Some also have a lottery system in situations when more students want to attend a charter school but there is not enough space.?

He also added that such schools only exist because parents are choosing them.?

“If parents choose not to send their children there, there’s not going to be any school,” Waters said. “So what greater accountability to answer a lot of these issues do you have than that?”

The amendment has been quickly swept up in partisan politics, as it was priority legislation for many Republican lawmakers during the last legislative session and Democrats, including Gov. Andy Beshear, have strongly voiced opposition to itAccording to the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, three issue committees have formed to campaign about the amendment. Two are for approving the amendment while one is against it.?

The amendment is GOP lawmakers’ answer to courts striking down charter school, voucher and tuition tax credit legislation in the past based on the Kentucky Constitution. As it is now, the Constitution bars using tax dollars to fund any but the state’s “common schools” (or public schools), and courts have cited the Constitution when striking down the legislative attempts to fund private or charter schools with public dollars.?